People

The City of the Future: Two visions
In 2050, more than nine billion people will inhabit the earth, of which more than two thirds will live in urban areas. What will this mean for housing, social structures, education and the ecological footprint of future cities? The answer to these questions will largely depend on decisions to be taken in the immediate future.

By Don Hinrichsen

Why?
By the middle of the century there will be over nine billion people living on the earth – more than two thirds of them will be in cities. The cities of Africa and Asia alone will have almost four billion inhabitants by 2050. Humanity demands that they are able to survive in dignity, with adequate living space and basic medical and social care. And our own will to survive demands that population growth should be handled as efficiently as possible in terms of resources.

What?
The prospects for the world’s affluent and poor cities differ fundamentally. Here we have the vision of the ‘eco-city’, managing itself neutrally in terms of resources by 2050, with all its inhabitants having enough living space, healthy living conditions and economic sufficiency. And then we have ‘Slumdog City’, a southern megalopolis, with 15 million people living in slums in that city alone. They have no adequate income and no clean drinking water or basic health care either.

How?
Two scenarios – two strategies for bringing about the first and preventing the second. In affluent cites, living and working in the same quarter enhance the quality of life and reduce energy requirements. In the poorer cities, basic provision is central: drinking water and electricity for all, a vested right for land use, communal gardens for food supplies.

Health is paramount to quality of living in all cities – both wealthy and poor. In both strategies, therefore, healthier buildings that make use of daylight and fresh air will be an absolute necessity.

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